Self-Similar Success and Failure (Week 5)
'To the extent math refers to reality, we are not certain; to the extent we are certain, math does not refer to reality.'
- Albert Einstein
I have to say first that an unfortunate known unknown for me is the content of the Michael Barnsley lecture. I was unable to attend due to illness, and to catch up with the recording due to technical difficulties. Nonetheless, I was exhilarated by the beauty of our complex mathematical systems and especially the fractals. The concept of simple results from complex processes was as stunning in this context as in the biomimicry unit I prepared for the engineering tutorial. I was pleased to find a convergence between fractals and biomimicry. A water mixer has been developed which uses the fractal shapes of curled ferns and nautilus shells to increase the efficiency of flow.
At first, I struggled to decide how fractals and chaos theory might fit into my theme of political tools for unravelling complexity. I would have liked to ask Barnsley about the usefulness of these mathematical subsets for modelling political and social endeavours. In our tutorial we discussed the imperfect analogies between fractals and complex human systems such as financial markets. In a way, such comparisons are caricatures just like economic models. They are not wholly realistic but rather exaggerate the complexity, self-similarity and scaleability of some of our systems.
On this basis, I was pleased to eventually realise that fractal modelling is relevant to our political and legal systems, particularly when compared to Steve Cork's concept of complex system memory. Our political and legal systems are artefacts or imprints of their own history. As such, our tool this week is to use the awareness of historical patterns to make the most of modern opportunities.
On this basis, I was pleased to eventually realise that fractal modelling is relevant to our political and legal systems, particularly when compared to Steve Cork's concept of complex system memory. Our political and legal systems are artefacts or imprints of their own history. As such, our tool this week is to use the awareness of historical patterns to make the most of modern opportunities.
The legal system continues to be influenced by old laws and older principles. These are reinterpreted in a complex mesh of meaning built on past usage as well as present context and individual circumstances. Legal principles such as the rule of law form the underlying stimulus for fractal behaviour. Legal practitioners attempt to propagate these principles throughout the system and over time. The common law generates a seemingly chaotic jumble of law but involves the scaling of principle and precedent to a particular case.
Meanwhile, the environmental and economic impacts of urbanisation appear to not only be scaleable between different sized cities, but even by the class of development within a city. Xuemei Bai modelled the impacts of poverty, production and consumption on a city's environment over time and the representation was remarkably self-similar and repetitive.
Meanwhile, the environmental and economic impacts of urbanisation appear to not only be scaleable between different sized cities, but even by the class of development within a city. Xuemei Bai modelled the impacts of poverty, production and consumption on a city's environment over time and the representation was remarkably self-similar and repetitive.
Finally, the self-similarity of political action throughout history ought to provide a salutory lesson to today's political leaders. My ticket spoke of the fractal behaviour of accelerating technological innovation. This may form a useful but aperiodic Black Swan which Taleb would encourage us to exploit. However, human behaviour can also manifest in a frustrating downward spiral. Western states have been intervening in the complex region of the Middle East since at least the mandate in Palestine. Through the Gulf Wars, we have caused an accelerating pattern of destabilisation and intervention. Afghanistan is a telling example of repeated ill-advised invasions which took no heed of the failure of previous expeditions. It would be wise for Western leaders to think carefully of past self-similar failures when planning their ongoing response to the Arab Spring.